I am a meteorologist and a former youth leader at church…I have a lot to say on both subjects…and then some
A special Coffee and A Weather Map with Jeff…Why I don’t give credence to the long range model click bait. A case study of Hurricane Beryl’s track.
Hi all!
I think I said this in a post on FB and X last week, but my wife and I are at Trawler school! We are learning to drive boats. Yesterday was the first day of school, and my boat driving skills are coming back to me. Getting the feel of these 32’ tug/trawlers has been good for getting me used to driving our boat in the coming weeks. I’m going to try and post stuff in the evenings on social media as I run into it. I’m having to study the in class materials each day, so posting will still be hit or miss for the upcoming days. We do get to take the trawler out on our own, for the weekend so Mary and I are trying to figure out where we want to go (within Grand Traverse Bay). Hopefully, next week when we get back to our boat, I’ll start posting videos again.
Slight Risk in Montana. Heat is expanding. Tropics, are the ramping up? Also, if you don’t want to listen to the whole thing, I’m releasing the Analysis and National Forecast, the Local forecasts, and Tropics separately.
Want a forecast? DM on social media accounts…
Websites used: Weather.gov (WPC/SPC/Local offices),
https://Tropicaltidbits.com,
https://weather.cod.edu (College of DuPage),
https://ecmwf.int (European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecast)
Apps used: RadarScope
EverythingWeather
Web Links: https://ministry-weather.com
Facebook: recreational.weather
Instagram: recreational.weather
X: (South Texas and Lower Michigan Recreational Weather) @nmirecwx
Coffee and a Weather Map with Jeff…07/18/2025. Flooding rain continues in the Mid-Atlantic. Slight Risk of Severe in Lower Michigan Saturday. South Texas Summer, and pleasant in Michigan.
A little late for today. I was watching the Tour de France first mountain stage. Main thing, the slow moving front in New England, stretching into New Mexico this morning is the main weather maker, and Invest 93L producing heavy rain in Louisiana today.
Severe weather possibilities in the Upper Great Lakes today. Risks Heavy rain across the country. NHC Updates on 93L.
While I was having dinner with family tonight, I noticed this popped up in my feeds. It looks like there is enough support for something to get going. I think I had said something yesterday, during my last video that a “home-grown” (stalled front) tropical system could spin up.
I was then pointed to this…
The blue is the machine learning weather model ensemble, the orange the ECMWF ensemble. This is Wednesday at 8 pm, and the center of low pressure systems from the models. So, I went over to TropicalTidbits.com to look at the model ensemble runs from the same time.
So there is a spread of time when we could see something form. And then where does it go? The models are all over the place. There is enough support that a depression will form in the Gulf, between Wednesday and Thursday, and move to the west before moving north. So far the models show weak systems. However, this is the time to prepare. Don’t get caught flat footed.
Something looks like it will form, but the strength and timing are unknown…
