I am a meteorologist and a former youth leader at church…I have a lot to say on both subjects…and then some
Hi All! We are having some electrical issues fixed on the boat today, so I decided to type a post. I’m also thinking about redesigning my website so that you can get most of the information that I use for the briefings. Anyway, here’s what is going on this afternoon…
On the 500 mb chart, The Rex Block is still in place over the eastern states, and a Low is meandering out in the Northwest.
The cold front out to the west is aligned with the jet stream in the Northern Plains, and back into the Rockies. the Upper level low over Virginia, and the surface low are almost stacked up (will it occlude?) So heavy rain is possible in Eastern North Carolina and the Virginia Capes.
High pressure is over the Upper Great Lakes, and South Texas.
The satellite of the country outlines all of the systems as well. With most of the clouds under the upper lows.
On the tropical scene, Invest 92L is looking quite healthy (see satellite below). The next area of concern has just moved off Africa. It currently isn’t in a good spot for development, but it will move into an area over the next week.
92L (red area) is expected to (90% chance) develop within the next 48 hours. The next wave (yellow area) only has a 20% chance within the next 7 days. So far the models have the first system recurving before Bermuda. It is too early to tell about the next wave, yet.
Looks like Lower Michigan should see the sky cloud up by the end of the week, but the chances of precipitation remain low (less than 10%) through Saturday. Temperatures will remain in the 80s Today and Wednesday, before the front moves through and cool things into the upper 60s to mid 70s, and gradually back into the mid 70s to mid 80s.
The chances for rain remain at 30% or less through tomorrow (Wednesday 9/17) and mainly along the Coastal Bend, with the best chances in Deep South Texas. It looks like it will remain partly sunny through the weekend, with temperatures will remain in the 90s.
Sorry for disappearing. We have run into an electrical problem with the boat. So between finding marine electricians, and taking the boat out with family (go to our Lutz Getaway page ), celebrating a 5 year old’s birthday, and other things, we have been busy. However, we now have our car for the week or so we will be here.
We did get to see the northern lights last night (go to Instagram or Facebook to see that).
So will do some weather analysis this afternoon, and get back into the swing of things…
Here they are! The Videos for South Texas and Lower Michigan…
Yesterday, I started a new way to do this. I split the forecast into South Texas and Lower Michigan versions. They are both about half the time as the full one, with all of the same information, but fine tuned to the region that they are for. I am also using Google Slides to help with the editing and work flow. That has seemed to help a bit more.
there is another cool down for Lower Michigan, and South Texas will warm up as the rain leaves over the next 24 hours.
This morning I was doing a hand analysis for Lower Michigan and one for South Texas. After doing the Michigan map, I decided to turn on the screen capture, and show the analysis as it happened, for South Texas. This is where the title to the videos come from for “Coffee and a Weather Map with Jeff” comes from. I used to do them live on YouTube, and recorded it and uploaded it to my personal Facebook profile. That was 4 to 5 years ago, while I was messing around learning about how to do live YouTube and Facebook, and how it could help with spreading the word for the NWS offices I’ve worked for.
Now here I am, retired, and still loving the weather. I’m contemplating, doing the Mac Mini live again. The iPad hardware-wise may be able to handle multiple screens and live, but the apps out, and Apple’s iPadOS (18 or 26) won’t let it. In the mean time, I can screen record it. Here’s this morning’s screen recording and the final products for Michigan and South Texas…
High pressure leads to pleasant weather in Lower Michigan for the weekend. South Texas starts out dry, but rain begins to move into the region by Sunday/Monday.
0:00 – Intro
0:47 – Upper Air
2:18 – Radar
3:56 – Surface map
5:53 – Tropics
9:00 – SPC/WPC
14:45 – Lower Michigan Forecast
18:59 – South Texas Forecast
24:50 – Outro
Websites used: Weather.gov (WPC/SPC/Local offices),
https://Tropicaltidbits.com,
https://weather.cod.edu (College of DuPage),
https://ecmwf.int (European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecast)
https://beta.pivotalweather.com
Apps used: RadarScope
EverythingWeather
Web Links: https://ministry-weather.com
Facebook: recreational.weather
Instagram: recreational.weather
X: (South Texas and Lower Michigan Recreational Weather) @nmirecwx
Things are a little slow starting this morning, but quiet so far. The weather is quiet as well. Over South Texas and Lower Michigan, rain is still possible in both places (there’s a little more to it than just that saying), and it is definitely cooler in Lower Michigan. So let’s get into it…
Over Lower Michigan, the upper level low to the north is still slowly moving east, but the main jet streak, is now south of the region. This puts us in the cool, unstable air, but no extra uplift from the higher winds. South Texas remains under the upper level high. On the surface map, the cold front is through the Great Lakes and is cutting through the northeastern states, and then down the east coast to the southern states, then across to North Texas, where it is a stationary front, and back up the Rockies. The stationary front, and monsoonal moisture will be a key player over the next few days. South Texas at this point looks like it back in summer mode, with onshore winds.
You can kind of see the outline of the front on the SPC/WPC outlooks maps this morning. The front in the Northeast kicks off showers and thunderstorms, as well as in the southeast US and along the Gulf Coast. The stationary front is the main player, along the Rockies, and the upper level ridge over most of the Desert Southwest. The slight risks are along the front in the Southern Plains, and in the Desert Southwest where the monsoonal moisture is producing a flash flood threat.
Tuesday looks similar, but the northeast rain is offshore. Wednesday looks similar as well, but there is another cold front coming down out of Canada, and into the Upper Great Lakes.
In the Tropics, TS Fernand is no threat to land, and the wave headed for the Caribbean is now at 0% chance of development.
So let’s look at the local forecasts…
Lower Michigan will gradually warm from the 60s to the lower to mid 70s by Wednesday. Showers should be on the way down, with isolated to scattered showers expected today. Dry Tuesday, as the high moves over us, and then showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday with the high chances north of US-10, and the medium chances south.
As I said earlier, South Texas is in summer mode, with temperatures back around 100ºF in the Brush Country, and the beaches in the upper 80s. Isolated showers and thunderstorms, most likely will move in with the sea breeze by the afternoon. There is a low risk of rip currents at the beach. It looks like there will be some thunderstorm chances coming up as well this week.
Colder air that moves through Lower Michigan will cool temperatures into the 60s Sunday and Monday (upper 50s?). South Texas has chances of rain through the week.
0:00 – Intro
0:23 – Analysis
4:29 – Tropical
6:43 – Radar
7:22 – SPC/WPC Outlooks
11:42 – South Texas Forecast
12:49 – Lower Michigan Forecast
15:49 – Outro
Websites used: Weather.gov (WPC/SPC/Local offices),
https://Tropicaltidbits.com,
https://weather.cod.edu (College of DuPage),
https://ecmwf.int (European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecast)
Apps used: RadarScope
EverythingWeather
Web Links: https://ministry-weather.com
Facebook: recreational.weather
Instagram: recreational.weather
X: (South Texas and Lower Michigan Recreational Weather) @nmirecwx
