I am a meteorologist and a former youth leader at church…I have a lot to say on both subjects…and then some
I wasn’t sure this morning, if I was going to update the South Texas Rain, but how could I not. I’m a weather nerd. Okay, let’s jump into it.
I’m typing this a little before 800am and should have the most up to date graphics and such at that time.
Before I left the NWS (April, 2025), one of the best tools that was finally delivered (it was promised for a long time) was Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS). The radars aren’t only put together, but also quality controlled so that the estimates are consistent and fairly accurate. In this case, Here’s the 24 hour rainfall estimate ending at 12z(7am EST/6am CST) this morning. Most of the rain, as was expected, fell mainly in the Rio Grande Plains, and the Pacific energy spread 1-2” rain in the Hill Country, and the Upper Nueces River valley(Uvalde area). Some of the rain also fell in the Frio River headwaters as well. There is also a hot spot just east of Laredo, and the NWS CRP office issued a Flood Advisory. The flood advisory means that small streams and tributaries may flood in places with that area. The problem we often run into no matter the office, is the lack of real time reports in rural areas. It doesn’t matter if it’s South Texas or Northern Michigan, we don’t know if a river or stream is flooding unless there is a gage or someone reports it. The NWS isn’t omniscient, and neither are the private sector companies.
Here’s the current front and outlook situation with the trough, as expected, slowly shifting to the east over the next two days (today and Monday). Today, the flash flood threat is higher, with a 15% chance or higher within 25 miles of a point of flash flooding. You can look at this as the potential for a couple of flash flood warnings being issued with the next 24 hours. I also have the latest Flood Watches (there is a potential for flooding). I’ll show that graphic in a minute.
The map on the right is the front and trough for 7AM on Monday, with the excessive heavy rain outlook and the severe weather outlook for 7am Monday-7am Tuesday. So the threats begin to ramp down, as the moisture (in the middle and in inches of PWat) begins to lower. The trough is expected to be along the lower and middle Texas Coasts on Tuesday morning, and with the moisture having lowered, the image on the right is 24 hour rain for Tuesday (ending at 6am CST Wednesday morning).
So with all that let’s look at the specifics…
These are South Texas specific, and we lead off with the ERO for Today and Monday. Most of South Texas is in the Slight risk for today, except the Victoria Crossroads. Monday, the marginal is only for part of South Texas. We have the expected rain fall amounts for South Texas over the next 48 Hours (yesterday was 72 hours) you can see that not much changed, as yesterday was the ramp up to the heaviest rain, which is expected today. The graphic on the right is the chances for rainfall exceeding 2.0”. Just like yesterday, the least likely rain is in the east, and the mosture in the west.
And last, but not least, there is a coastal flood advisory, and a high risk of rip currents later today, with all of the easterly wind flow.
So to sum up the weather for today…
The Flood watches remain in effect until noon (CST) Monday for South Texas, and until 9am Monday, for portions of Deep South Texas. Highs today will generally be in the 70s with the warmest close to the Gulf coast. Lows will be in the 60s, with upper 50s near the Victoria Crossroads. There will still be some rain and clouds on Monday, so temperatures will again remain in the 70s, with some cooler temperatures in the northern Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads in the upper 60s.
No video this weekend — back with Coffee and Weather on Monday. Here is the weekend outlook for Northern Michigan, South Texas, and Coastal South Carolina.
NORTHERN MICHIGAN — Gaylord
Today: Sunny to Partly Cloudy, high 46°, low tonight 31°, no rain expected.
Sunday: mostly cloudy, then a chance of rain, high 51°, low 36°.
The week ahead cools down after Tuesday’s 54° — rain showers Wednesday (46°), then 40° Thursday and 42° Friday.
SOUTH TEXAS — Corpus Christi (See Post on Texas Gully Washers)
Today: partly sunny, then a slight chance of rain, high 79°, low tonight 72°.
Sunday: showers and thunderstorms, high 77°, low 67°. Showers and thunderstorms continue Monday (73°), with rain chances easing through the week and sunny by Friday (73°).
Alerts: Flood Watch until Monday 12:00 PM CST, and a Rip Current Statement until Monday 6:00 AM CST.
MYRTLE BEACH AREA — Grand Strand
Today: patchy fog this morning, then sunny, high 69°, low tonight 47°.
Sunday: sunny, high 66°, low 50°. Sunshine holds through the week — highs around 71° Monday through Thursday, cooling to 63° Friday.
Data: National Weather Service (weather.gov), NBM 00Z run Nov 7, 2026.
Instead of doing a whole video on this, I thought I would show the update from yesterday for South Texas, as the rain is expected to cause flooding in the Rio Grande Plains, and possibly out toward the Middle Texas Coast.
Let’s start with the set up…
Looking at the above image, from 6AM CST there is a trough of low pressure over the Rio Grande Valley, which points up the into the Rio Grande Plains and into the western part of the Hill Country. So the wind is going uphill, which is none as orographic lift, helping to squeeze more moisture out of the atmosphere, than just the trough of low pressure. If you look out over the Gulf, the dewpoints are around 70°F and we can visualize that better with the Precipitable Water (Pwat) map. Which is the amount of water in the atmosphere that if you could condense it all out is what you would have. Even though the amounts are just above one inch, remember that the wind is replacing what is condensing out, and if the source continues to push more water into the region, you are going to get much more than current PWat. So let’s look at those over the next 3 days…
Here’s the map from 10 am CST this morning, and remember the winds are going to be pretty much from the east or southeast and a persistent trough over the Rio Grande Valley through the weekend. Note the plume of moisture focused in the western part first, and then gradually moving east over the next 3 days.
So the NWS Corpus Christi NWS, issued a version of the WPC Excessive Heavy Rain graphic this morning…
Looking at the Probabilistic Precipitation graphics
The expected rainfall is on the left and the chance of 1.00” is on the right. These maps are valid from this morning to Tuesday morning. 3-4 inches of rain in the Brush Country and the Rio Grande Plains, and 1.5-3.0” of rain along the Coastal Plains (the Victoria Crossroads will have less than 1.5”). The chances of getting 1” or greater is near 50% in the east and increasing as you head west into the Brush Country.
So the Corpus Christi office has issued a Flood WATCH, for all of South Texas. It doesn’t look like Brownsville or San Antonio has issued anything, yet.
This set up is serious, as the flooding in the headwaters of the rivers and potential flash flooding could be a major issue in the coming days. The Rio Grande River will be most affected with the expected rainfall around 4 inches for 72 hours. However, there is an upside that the water running from the Frio River Headwaters will end up in Choke Canyon reservoir and the rest of the Nueces River will end up in the Lake Corpus Christi. So those reservoirs would be filled, but with all the rain expected there is likely to be some moderate flooding.
So the rain gets started late this afternoon, and increases overnight. Sunday, the showers and thunderstorms will be over the region.
Temperatures will be in the mid 70s to around 80 across South Texas today. Lows will be mid to upper 60s tonight and through the 70s with the rain and cloud cover on Sunday.
The rain continues into Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday the chance of rain fall off, with mid 70s for highs. Expect that any river flooding that occurs into the middle of the week.
When I started to make weather videos, making a forecast was the easy part of the day. The uploading, trying to get the message out, was the hard part. First, I just did YouTube, then I added Facebook, Instagram, and X/Twitter. My wife suggested that I could use my TikTok account that was languishing in obscurity. I’ve done lives on YouTube in the past. Just nothing that I could commit to. Then Meta, the Facebook/Instagram people, created a bot to be a personal assistant, Muse.
I was introduced to Muse, besides the ads, by a podcaster that I listen to, who hates the chatbots, but when Grokbot and Muse came out, and showed how they made the daily tech tasks easier, I was intrigued. Muse has a free service, that can do a lot of things. It is limited, but with all of the things I did this week for the weather briefing, it doesn’t even put a dent into its usage quota.
What do I have it do? I have it go out to the NWS National Blend of Models and make maps. It puts the whole presentation together in Google Slides, and then I edit it. This is a work in progress, I started to get my workflow down. I look through weather maps after I get up and brew some coffee. I make some edits. By 6am Jarvis (my Musebot, named after Tony Stark’s AI assistant) has the slide package ready. I use two main apps (Everything Weather and Weather Front) that allow me to view radar, satellite, observations, and model data (there is more on both and each has its pluses and minuses.). Between the apps as the presentation, usually by 7 am I’m ready to get to the longest part, the upload.
In the past, I had to upload each thing separately. That took hours of work. With Muse, I can upload to 3 sites, have a transcript, closed captions created, and a chapter file. While do this, I found out that Muse can edit the video, based on the transcript, into three shorter versions which are all specific to the parts of the country I’m forecasting for. I can keep the smaller videos below the 10 min limit for an Instagram Reel, so Instagram is now in play. There still have been some bumps along the way, but I had everything done, that includes the new 10 minute localized videos, by 10am yesterday.
So now I’m looking for suggestions. I’m thinking about starting a little earlier, and adding a few sites for family. I know that I can go down the meteorological rabbit hole while doing the maps or models, so I know I can shorten the larger broadcast. Otherwise, do you want something more general? Something more specific for your area?
is this working?
Northern Michigan colder — highs in the 40s with rain and mixed snow, lake effect getting going; South Texas around 80 with a coastal low bringing rain up the Rio Grande Valley; the Grand Strand in the mid 70s with showers and thunderstorms and a marginal severe risk. Plus a look at the European model, the Alberta clippers fading from the pattern, and the tropical outlook.
Chapters:
0:00 Intro
1:02 National Observations, Radar & Surface Analysis
7:04 Satellite
8:03 Models — RRFS
15:04 Models — ECMWF & GFS
19:50 National Forecast Maps & Outlooks
28:17 Northern Michigan
31:26 South Texas
33:55 Myrtle Beach Area
36:15 Wrap-Up
Northern Michigan turning colder — highs near 50 with rain moving in and lake-effect snow in the pattern ahead; South Texas sunny and mild around 80; the Grand Strand sunny in the mid 70s with patchy morning fog. Plus a look at the coastal lows and the Alberta clipper on the way.
Chapters:
0:00 Intro
0:35 National Observations, Radar & Surface Analysis
7:21 Satellite
9:07 Models — RRFS
13:44 Models — ECMWF & GFS
21:01 National Forecast Maps & Outlooks
26:11 Northern Michigan
29:27 South Texas
31:43 Myrtle Beach Area
33:40 Wrap-Up
Northern Michigan in the mid-to-upper 60s today with rain moving in, then much colder with lake-effect flakes possible by Friday; South Texas sunny and dry in the upper 70s to mid 80s ahead of a Friday front; the Grand Strand sunny, mid 70s along the coast to lower 80s inland, with rain staying offshore. Plus a look at the coastal lows and the colder pattern ahead.
Chapters:
0:00 Intro
0:27 National Observations, Radar & Surface Analysis
6:46 Satellite
8:12 Models — RRFS
15:15 Models — ECMWF & GFS
19:46 National Forecast Maps & Outlooks
24:19 Northern Michigan
26:16 South Texas
27:55 Myrtle Beach Area
30:23 Wrap-Up
Websites used:
Weather.gov (WPC/SPC/Local offices),
https://Tropicaltidbits.com,
https://weathernerds.org
Apps used: RadarScope
EverythingWeather
Weather Front
Web links
Web Site: https://ministry-weather.com
Facebook: recreational.weather
Instagram: recreational.weather
X: @nmirecwx (South Texas and Lower Michigan Recreational Weather)
YouTube: @JeffLutz
Coffee and Weather with Jeff — Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Northern Michigan mild in the mid 60s to near 70 today with showers and thunderstorms moving in tonight; South Texas in the lower-to-mid 80s (90s in the Rio Grande Valley) ahead of the next front; the Grand Strand sunny to partly cloudy and dry with rain staying offshore. Plus a look at the Atlantic tropical disturbance and the colder air on the way later in the period.
Chapters:
0:00 Intro
0:28 National Observations, Radar & Surface Analysis
3:39 Satellite
4:58 Models — RRFS
8:27 Models — ECMWF & GFS
14:48 Tropical Weather Outlook
18:14 National Forecast Maps & Outlooks
21:06 Northern Michigan
22:06 South Texas
23:35 Myrtle Beach Area
27:28 Wrap-Up
Data and imagery credits: Weather.gov (WPC, SPC, and local NWS offices), TropicalTidbits.com, WeatherNerds.org. Apps used: RadarScope, EverythingWeather, Weather Front.
The official kickoff: Northern Michigan dry in the mid 60s today with rain arriving tonight ahead of a wet, cooling week; South Texas in the mid 80s (dense fog this morning) ahead of a Tuesday-night front; the Grand Strand cloudy and dry in the lower-to-mid 70s with rain chances building Thursday and Friday.