I am a meteorologist and a former youth leader at church…I have a lot to say on both subjects…and then some
Sorry for disappearing. We have run into an electrical problem with the boat. So between finding marine electricians, and taking the boat out with family (go to our Lutz Getaway page ), celebrating a 5 year old’s birthday, and other things, we have been busy. However, we now have our car for the week or so we will be here.
We did get to see the northern lights last night (go to Instagram or Facebook to see that).
So will do some weather analysis this afternoon, and get back into the swing of things…
Here they are! The Videos for South Texas and Lower Michigan…
Yesterday, I started a new way to do this. I split the forecast into South Texas and Lower Michigan versions. They are both about half the time as the full one, with all of the same information, but fine tuned to the region that they are for. I am also using Google Slides to help with the editing and work flow. That has seemed to help a bit more.
there is another cool down for Lower Michigan, and South Texas will warm up as the rain leaves over the next 24 hours.
This morning I was doing a hand analysis for Lower Michigan and one for South Texas. After doing the Michigan map, I decided to turn on the screen capture, and show the analysis as it happened, for South Texas. This is where the title to the videos come from for “Coffee and a Weather Map with Jeff” comes from. I used to do them live on YouTube, and recorded it and uploaded it to my personal Facebook profile. That was 4 to 5 years ago, while I was messing around learning about how to do live YouTube and Facebook, and how it could help with spreading the word for the NWS offices I’ve worked for.
Now here I am, retired, and still loving the weather. I’m contemplating, doing the Mac Mini live again. The iPad hardware-wise may be able to handle multiple screens and live, but the apps out, and Apple’s iPadOS (18 or 26) won’t let it. In the mean time, I can screen record it. Here’s this morning’s screen recording and the final products for Michigan and South Texas…
High pressure leads to pleasant weather in Lower Michigan for the weekend. South Texas starts out dry, but rain begins to move into the region by Sunday/Monday.
0:00 – Intro
0:47 – Upper Air
2:18 – Radar
3:56 – Surface map
5:53 – Tropics
9:00 – SPC/WPC
14:45 – Lower Michigan Forecast
18:59 – South Texas Forecast
24:50 – Outro
Websites used: Weather.gov (WPC/SPC/Local offices),
https://Tropicaltidbits.com,
https://weather.cod.edu (College of DuPage),
https://ecmwf.int (European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecast)
https://beta.pivotalweather.com
Apps used: RadarScope
EverythingWeather
Web Links: https://ministry-weather.com
Facebook: recreational.weather
Instagram: recreational.weather
X: (South Texas and Lower Michigan Recreational Weather) @nmirecwx
Things are a little slow starting this morning, but quiet so far. The weather is quiet as well. Over South Texas and Lower Michigan, rain is still possible in both places (there’s a little more to it than just that saying), and it is definitely cooler in Lower Michigan. So let’s get into it…
Over Lower Michigan, the upper level low to the north is still slowly moving east, but the main jet streak, is now south of the region. This puts us in the cool, unstable air, but no extra uplift from the higher winds. South Texas remains under the upper level high. On the surface map, the cold front is through the Great Lakes and is cutting through the northeastern states, and then down the east coast to the southern states, then across to North Texas, where it is a stationary front, and back up the Rockies. The stationary front, and monsoonal moisture will be a key player over the next few days. South Texas at this point looks like it back in summer mode, with onshore winds.
You can kind of see the outline of the front on the SPC/WPC outlooks maps this morning. The front in the Northeast kicks off showers and thunderstorms, as well as in the southeast US and along the Gulf Coast. The stationary front is the main player, along the Rockies, and the upper level ridge over most of the Desert Southwest. The slight risks are along the front in the Southern Plains, and in the Desert Southwest where the monsoonal moisture is producing a flash flood threat.
Tuesday looks similar, but the northeast rain is offshore. Wednesday looks similar as well, but there is another cold front coming down out of Canada, and into the Upper Great Lakes.
In the Tropics, TS Fernand is no threat to land, and the wave headed for the Caribbean is now at 0% chance of development.
So let’s look at the local forecasts…
Lower Michigan will gradually warm from the 60s to the lower to mid 70s by Wednesday. Showers should be on the way down, with isolated to scattered showers expected today. Dry Tuesday, as the high moves over us, and then showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday with the high chances north of US-10, and the medium chances south.
As I said earlier, South Texas is in summer mode, with temperatures back around 100ºF in the Brush Country, and the beaches in the upper 80s. Isolated showers and thunderstorms, most likely will move in with the sea breeze by the afternoon. There is a low risk of rip currents at the beach. It looks like there will be some thunderstorm chances coming up as well this week.
Colder air that moves through Lower Michigan will cool temperatures into the 60s Sunday and Monday (upper 50s?). South Texas has chances of rain through the week.
0:00 – Intro
0:23 – Analysis
4:29 – Tropical
6:43 – Radar
7:22 – SPC/WPC Outlooks
11:42 – South Texas Forecast
12:49 – Lower Michigan Forecast
15:49 – Outro
Websites used: Weather.gov (WPC/SPC/Local offices),
https://Tropicaltidbits.com,
https://weather.cod.edu (College of DuPage),
https://ecmwf.int (European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecast)
Apps used: RadarScope
EverythingWeather
Web Links: https://ministry-weather.com
Facebook: recreational.weather
Instagram: recreational.weather
X: (South Texas and Lower Michigan Recreational Weather) @nmirecwx
Had to get a few projects done on the RV yesterday, and we go our hoses changed out, on the boat. Things are coming together, although a little slower than we would like.
In the weather, of course the big story is Hurricane Erin, which is a category 2 storm.
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Weakening is likely to begin by Friday, but Erin is forecast to remain a hurricane into the weekend.
Erin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km).
The main story with Erin, since the storm won’t make any landfalls, is the large wind field, which is producing a high rip current risk along most of the Atlantic seaboard. The only people that will be happy about this is surfers. Stay safe…
With that out of the way, let’s look the rest of the forecast…
I’ll mention that when I saw the 6-10 day outlook with below normal temperatures and then the current upper air pattern, all I could think of was the ridge/trough jet stream pattern which is starting to show. Not sure that it will remain like this, but we are getting close to September and the color change starts in Michigan soon. Anyway, the trough over the Upper Great Lakes will keeps us on the cool pattern for the next few days, and probably cloudy. We are getting into the “unstable” season for the Great Lakes, where the water temperatures will be warmer than the air temperatures, which can complicate a forecast(like cloud cover).
For South Texas, the main ridge is now to the west, and other is a broad upper low over the region, which looks to drift over the region through the next week.
On the surface chart the cold front and low is just starting to move out of the Lower Great Lakes, although it probably won’t move very fast as Erin stops thing up, until it gets into the jet stream and begins to move east. There is a front in the Canadian Prairies with a front that trails it. That will be the next weather maker in the days to come.
The Upper Great Lakes will be thunderstorm free, and probably begin to clear later today, or at least tomorrow (Thursday). Then that prairie low will move across the northern tier of states, and move into the Upper Great Lakes by Friday. So outdoor activity will be pretty good over the next couple of days (in Michigan).
That upper level low will continue to bring a low to medium chance of rain to South Texas over he next few days. In fact, the Corpus Christi office had this graphic showing the amount of rain over the next week that is possible.
Today through Friday look like the risk of excessive rain is low the next few days in Michigan, and it is marginal on Thursday for South Texas.
So here are the local forecast for the recreational interests, primarily the beaches…
Lower Michigan has high rip risks on the north facing beaches on Lakes Michigan and Huron, primarily on the southern part of each lake. The northern parts look pretty good, but the temperature is cool.
It will continue to be hot in South Texas, so go to the beach, but beware of thunderstorms. Don’t get caught outside with a nearby storm.
So let’s look at the 6-10 day outlook…
This one came from the Gaylord, Michigan office. So, they are advertising the cool down for the the 24-29 of August (no, that’s not a typo, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has been showing this cool down since the previous day, with it centered on the Upper Great Lakes.) which will move south and out of the region. Sorry South Texas, it’s unlikely to reach y’all, and it looks like, during that time, that you will still remain above normal.
That’s about it for now.
