I am a meteorologist and a former youth leader at church…I have a lot to say on both subjects…and then some
I’m going to see how this goes over. I’m thinking that I will do morning videos (Coffee and a Weather Map with Jeff), and then at night do a post on the hot spots for the night. If there are no hot spots, then no post. We’ll see how that goes. Alright, let’s jump into it…
The first hot spot is TD #2, in the Gulf. The wave that has progressed into a depression and will likely become Tropical Storm Barry overnight or Sunday morning.
Hot Spot #2 is Low pressure and front that stretches from western Quebec to the northern Appalachian Mountains, and then into the Ohio Valley. While the front stretches there, the marginal severe threat stretches into the Southeastern States.
You can see it better in this map with the slight and marginal risks outlined in te east and southeast.
Hot spot #3 is the Northern Plains, with the Tornado watch in South Dakota and Minnesota. There are some Severe thunderstorm watches surrounding it, plus a couple of convective and precipitation discussions.
All of these are well covered, if you listen to Max Velocity’s live stream. It doesn’t look like Ryan Hall is streaming, but it he does have his Y’all bot channel so you can watch that if you want a stream.
91L has been increased to a medium (50%) chance of development during the next 2 days. It looks like it would stay south of Brownsville, but it will depend on its development whether it would be a threat or not. The only reason I say that is due to Alberto last year. Alberto developed tropical storm force winds on the north side, up by Corpus Christi, even though the land fall was south of Brownsville. I’m not saying that’s what will happen, but it is something to keep in mind.
Otherwise, here’s the link to 91L on the Tropical Tidbits site with all of the satellite, observations, and model plots.
Since I’m out of town again, and looking for a boat, I haven’t had a chance to do any new videos or posts. So once the grandkids are in bed, I thought that I would look at the hot spots over the country, especially with the N Michigan and S Texas pretty much quiet tonight. For tonight, if you are away from city lights you probably will be able to see the Bootids Meteor shower peak tonight.
Currently, there is a tornado watch in NorthDakota, and a Severe Thunderstorm watch in South Dakota and Nebraska. This includes an enhanced risk (3 of 5) for severe weather and slight risk (1 of 5) of excessive heavy rain. This is due to the next low and cold front moving into the Northern Plains.
The other hot spot is in the east where the front that passed through the Upper Great Lakes yesterday is now pushing to move through New England and the Mid-Atlantic states, along the warm front that extends from the low in Canada.
For both areas keep watch and be safe.
I’m down state looking at boats today. So until I get back home, I’ll be typing things for the weekend.
With the Monsoonal Moisture beginning to ebb in New Mexico, it looks like it has moved to the Upper Great Lakes. With the jet stream along the Canadian border and the warm front through the region, heavy rain is possible.
So WPC, has put Upper and Northern lower Michigan in a slight risk (2 out of 5) for heavy rain.
You can see as the GFS is pushing the heaviest rain in the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Upper Great Lakes. So be aware of the possibility of heavy rain, today.
South Texas will still have isolated to scattered showers along the Middle Texas Coast.
The warm front that keeps causing rain. Heat in the Southeast. Andrea was short lived…
I decided to show just the eastern half of the country, because it was easier to show where all of the main action in the country. South Texas continues to get its southeast flow off of the Gulf. In Northern Michigan, an area of low pressure continues to slowly move east which increases the chance of rain for today. The main action is in the center of country with the thunderstorm complex that is moving through Kansas.
The only thing that has changed in the upper air pattern is the ridge (high pressure) continues to build in to the Texas, which is building some heat. The upper air pattern is still a bit weak today, so nothing big is expected up north. Again the main action is the Central US where a trough of energy will move out of the Four Corners area and into the Plains. The other area of concern is the stationary front in the east where heavy rain is again an issue.
You can see the fronts from all of the clouds are grouped together.
So for the outlooks, it’s very busy looking in the Central Plains this morning with the complex of thunderstorms. There’s a moderate risk (level 4 of 5) from the Storm Prediction Center in Kansas, and that’s a surrounded by the Enhanced area (level 3 of 5).
As I said before, the fronts in the east (which are stationary now, are expected to move east a bit so that they are warm fronts. This is again going to fire off more rain in the lower Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic States.
All of that energy moving through the Central Plains today will move into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Upper Great Lakes tomorrow (Wednesday). The enhanced (level 3 of 5) will poke into southern lower Michigan, with a decent sized are of slight risk (level 2 of 5) covering most of southern lower Michigan. Marginal (level 1 of 5) goes up to the Straits of Mackinac. On the backside of the low moving through the central part of the US, rain could be heavy at time with the slight risk of exceeding flash flood guidance. That’s also the case in the central Appalachians again. With all of the rain that has fallen in that area, more on top of it increases that chances that flooding will occur.
Things look like they settle a bit, although, this being the summer months, the cold fronts don’t move as fast, or they even stall out. That seems to be the case for Thursday, as the front that has been somewhat stalled in Canada moves slowly in the Great Lakes, which means rain, and back closer to the lows in the Northern Plains, the severe weather should remain tamped down a bit. However, with the stalled fronts, WPC has outlined a marginal risk for heavy rain in the Great Lakes.
South Texas looks to remain in a pattern with a chance for thunderstorms each day, but no expectation of severe weather from them. Hopefully, they’ll continue to get more rain for the Nueces River Basin and the reservoirs.
Here are the graphics from the individual offices for more details…
As promised, I’ve started to do the morning weather for the regions (S TX and N MI). I’m typically going to start like this…A surface weather map, Upper air chart (500 mb), Satellite, radar, with outlooks today, then the outlooks for the next few days. I may have a model graphic in there as well if it helps to tell the story of the forecast. Once I’m good with the written one, I’ll figure a time to do the recorded version in the future.
We have a weak high pressure over the Upper Great Lakes with a host of fronts and low pressure systems upstream. Along the Coastal Bend of Texas, the southeast prevailing flow has definitely taken over after the month of May which had one or two frontal passages, or they were close to getting that far south. However, we are going into the summer months, and the cold fronts usually don’t have the umph to get much farther south than North Texas. Moisture is being pumped into South Texas, which is a hopeful sign that the ongoing drought will begin to reverse.
The upper air is weak as well over N MI and S TX this morning. There is a 500 mb low over the region, which will produce isolated thunderstorms over the Coastal Bend today, and the 500 mb high to the west which will start pumping up the temperatures as it moves a bit more east. In northern Michigan, There is a shortwave disturbance which is expected to kick off thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, although the main action for that will be in the Plains and Midwest.
The satellite loop this morning kind of shows what I was describing with the thunderstorms moving over The Dakotas, and another feature over the Mid-Mississippi Valley. The moisture overnight in South Texas is still producing more showers, and some low clouds. Just enough moisture left over for the afternoon heat to kick off isolated showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze.
These three maps are from, left to right WPC and Everything WX app (more about that app in a bit). Starting with the left graphic (you can click on it and it will expand) WPC has the low moving through the Dakotas, and another spinning up eastern Colorado to kick off the thunderstorms with marginal to enhanced risks (center map). The enhanced risks (3 of 5 levels from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC)) are in the vicinity of the sfc (surface) lows. So as they track east, the best chance for severe weather will be there. The left map shows the WPC’s (Weather Prediction Center) risk of exceeding Flash Flood Guidance. There’s a marginal in the Plains and upper Midwest, with the thunderstorms, due to the thunderstorms producing heavy rain. However, there are some slight risks in the Mid-Atlantic States, and the lower Ohio Valley, and the marginal risks down to the Gulf Coast. The Slight (2 of 5 levels from the WPC) risks are due to the stationary fronts and the lows along them. Never underestimate a boundary that doesn’t move. Thunderstorms can form along it and keep running over the region. If that happens, heavy rain is the result. There have already been flash flood issues a day or two ago in West Virginia, so the slights could be upgraded as the situation evolves today.
I need to get going, and move my 5th wheel. So, I’ll leave you with forecast graphics from Gaylord, MI and Corpus Christi, TX.
Things have been busy again since we left South Texas. First, was the week of heading west to Mary’s (my wife)family in New Mexico. Then the trip back to the Great Lakes just in time for my oldest grandson’s high graduation. Then to New Hampshire to attend the 2nd birthday party for another grandson, then back to Michigan, helping get the graduation open house set up.
So now I think I can get things started. First, I’ll begin with posting NWS graphics with a blog post here. Once I have a handle on the work flow, I’m going to begin recording things. My livestream efforts have been stymied a bit as my Mac (2017) and my iPad (2025) don’t play well together. I can stream from my tablet, but trying to switch apps (Safari to RadarScope to Everything Weather and back again) with the video without a lot of transitioning is a little on the bulky side. So, I’m going to go back to my roots of screen capture and video editing to get my project off the ground. I can livestream radar data. I did that when the straight line winds (over 100 mph) moved through South Texas. So, I can probably do a version of some of the other YouTubers. Although my focus will be on South Texas and Northern Michigan. My original podcast was Northern Michigan Recreational Weather (about 20 years ago), was okay, but I couldn’t sustain it. Besides it was more of a way to play with the technology and show the proof of concepts back in the day.
