I am a meteorologist and a former youth leader at church…I have a lot to say on both subjects…and then some
After yesterday’s hot, sunny weather, here in West Michigan, it looks like things will take a turn today. 98L did bring some rain to the Nueces River basin, but not as much as the models said. There is still a threat for showers and Thunderstorms in South Texas. Here are the details…
That cold front that we talked about yesterday, will move into lower Michigan today, and by late this evening be in southern lower Michigan. This is bringing moderate to high chance that there will be showers and thunderstorms. SPC and WPC has us outlooked for marginal risk (Level 1 out of 5) respectively, but the slight risks (2 of 5) for both is just west in Wisconsin. However, the front fizzles overnight, and Sunday looks to be sunny to partly cloudy. It will still be warm today with mid 80s to the lower 90s in Lower Michigan.
I was talking about the front moving south. Here you can see as it moves into northern lower this afternoon, and southern lower this evening and overnight.
This morning’s analysis doesn’t look too different from other days. Weak onshore flow with a heat low to the west. Well, maybe not a heat low. Take a look at the satellite from the past 18 hours. You see 98L move ashore with its center moving west and the cloud shield trying to move north, into a thunderstorm sheared environment.
South Texas did get some rain in the basin, but not as much that was expected.
So for the details of the forecasts (didn’t I see that before?)…Lower Michigan Beaches have a low risk of rip currents today, but thunderstorms are expected to be scattered to numerous by the afternoon, and lasting into this evening.
For the South Texas beaches, there will be a few showers and thunderstorms, with a high risk of rip currents due to the lingering effects of Invest 98L.
So what ever you do today, have a great day!
We have family coming today, and another busy day of errands. The RV is being washed, due to all of the bugs and road grime on our trip back to Michigan. We do have a few leads on selling it. I like doing the videos, but the editing and uploading takes more time, so another post…
We have another jet streak, moving across the Northern Plains today, with low pressure and a few fronts hanging around the region.
This leads to the front in the upper left of the Great Lakes analysis pushing into the Upper Great Lakes tonight, although showers are already showing up on radar in Wisconsin.
The front and lows lead to the slight risk (2 of5) for severe thunderstorms and Excessive heavy rain in the Upper Mississippi Valley. So in Lower Michigan, Sunny skies, but the thunderstorms will begin to encroach on West Michigan and NW Lower overnight. There is a slight risk from the moisture moving up from Mexico into Arizona and there is a slight risk for heavy rain with Invest 98L which is moving out of the southwestern Gulf, and the Rio Grande Valley, and South Texas. Watch out for this feature the next couple of days, but not for development, but for the possibility of heavy rain going into South Texas.
Current WWA is mainly heat related in the Central Plains and into the Gulf Coast States. The Red Flag warnings are less out west as the winds have dropped to 5-10 mph, but it is still very dry in the afternoon. Watch out for Burn bands.
I mentioned 98L earlier, which is that orange X and hatched area. There is a 50% chance it could develop into a tropical depression today, before it make landfall tonight. However, the heavy rain threat is the main issue to watch today through the weekend, depending on how long the moisture and forcing sticks around.
Erin continues to move WNW away from the islands, and current model tracks show the projected path to be between the US Coast, and Bermuda and the passing NE out to sea. If you are in either area (US or Bermuda) keep an eye on it. A little course change could bring issues to either place.
We’ve talked about the local impacts for both Lower Michigan and South Texas today, so the temperatures for both places look like this…
Mid to upper 80s in Lower Michigan today, lower 80 at the beaches.
For South Texas, it’s summer…Upper 80s to around 90 along the Coastal Bend and Coastal Plains (Victoria Crossroads too). Mid 90s to lower 100s (102º in Laredo).
Rip Current Risk along the beaches in Michigan remains low. While the Rip Current Risk along the Middle Texas Coast is expected to moderate today with 98L generating some bigger swell.
Video is here…
Got behind with a few errands this morning, and now I’m in Grand Rapids, so no video today.
The upper level low (trough) is through Lower Michigan, and the main cold front, as well.
Looking at the WWA (Watch/Warning/Advisory) map,
The East Coast has Heat Advisories, while the Central and Southern Appalachian mountains as well as middle Tennessee has flood watches as the rain continues to train over the region.
Heat is also an issue in the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Desert Southwest.
There are wild fire issues (Red Flag warnings and Fire Weather watches) for the Rocky Mountains and the Intermountain West.
SPC today has a slight risk in South Dakota, with a marginal in the Mid-Atlantic states and portions of New England.
WPC has a slight risk of excessive rain today in the area that has the flood watches.
NHC has a new area to watch in the Gulf, south and east of Texas. It has a 20% chance for them next 7 days of development, and a 10% for the next 48 hours. It’s a pretty disorganized wave, so far. It could cause issues with the Middle Texas Coast, in a few days with the possibility of heavy rain and rip currents. TS Erin is still quite a ways out, but in the 6-10 day range could begin to produce rip currents and beach flooding. The X near the Canadian Maritime Provinces, has gone to 0% chance so it is will continue to move out to sea.
In Lower Michigan, it’s going to be sunny and a little less warm than it has been through Friday. So beach weather through Friday, in northern lower Michigan, will be good. The West Michigan beach today, still has a moderate rip current risk.
In South Texas, it looks sunny, with a low rip current risk.
A special Coffee and A Weather Map with Jeff…Why I don’t give credence to the long range model click bait. A case study of Hurricane Beryl’s track.
Hi all!
I think I said this in a post on FB and X last week, but my wife and I are at Trawler school! We are learning to drive boats. Yesterday was the first day of school, and my boat driving skills are coming back to me. Getting the feel of these 32’ tug/trawlers has been good for getting me used to driving our boat in the coming weeks. I’m going to try and post stuff in the evenings on social media as I run into it. I’m having to study the in class materials each day, so posting will still be hit or miss for the upcoming days. We do get to take the trawler out on our own, for the weekend so Mary and I are trying to figure out where we want to go (within Grand Traverse Bay). Hopefully, next week when we get back to our boat, I’ll start posting videos again.
Slight Risk in Montana. Heat is expanding. Tropics, are the ramping up? Also, if you don’t want to listen to the whole thing, I’m releasing the Analysis and National Forecast, the Local forecasts, and Tropics separately.
Want a forecast? DM on social media accounts…
Websites used: Weather.gov (WPC/SPC/Local offices),
https://Tropicaltidbits.com,
https://weather.cod.edu (College of DuPage),
https://ecmwf.int (European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecast)
Apps used: RadarScope
EverythingWeather
Web Links: https://ministry-weather.com
Facebook: recreational.weather
Instagram: recreational.weather
X: (South Texas and Lower Michigan Recreational Weather) @nmirecwx
Coffee and a Weather Map with Jeff…07/18/2025. Flooding rain continues in the Mid-Atlantic. Slight Risk of Severe in Lower Michigan Saturday. South Texas Summer, and pleasant in Michigan.
A little late for today. I was watching the Tour de France first mountain stage. Main thing, the slow moving front in New England, stretching into New Mexico this morning is the main weather maker, and Invest 93L producing heavy rain in Louisiana today.
Severe weather possibilities in the Upper Great Lakes today. Risks Heavy rain across the country. NHC Updates on 93L.
