I am a meteorologist and a former youth leader at church…I have a lot to say on both subjects…and then some
The warm front that keeps causing rain. Heat in the Southeast. Andrea was short lived…
I decided to show just the eastern half of the country, because it was easier to show where all of the main action in the country. South Texas continues to get its southeast flow off of the Gulf. In Northern Michigan, an area of low pressure continues to slowly move east which increases the chance of rain for today. The main action is in the center of country with the thunderstorm complex that is moving through Kansas.
The only thing that has changed in the upper air pattern is the ridge (high pressure) continues to build in to the Texas, which is building some heat. The upper air pattern is still a bit weak today, so nothing big is expected up north. Again the main action is the Central US where a trough of energy will move out of the Four Corners area and into the Plains. The other area of concern is the stationary front in the east where heavy rain is again an issue.
You can see the fronts from all of the clouds are grouped together.
So for the outlooks, it’s very busy looking in the Central Plains this morning with the complex of thunderstorms. There’s a moderate risk (level 4 of 5) from the Storm Prediction Center in Kansas, and that’s a surrounded by the Enhanced area (level 3 of 5).
As I said before, the fronts in the east (which are stationary now, are expected to move east a bit so that they are warm fronts. This is again going to fire off more rain in the lower Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic States.
All of that energy moving through the Central Plains today will move into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Upper Great Lakes tomorrow (Wednesday). The enhanced (level 3 of 5) will poke into southern lower Michigan, with a decent sized are of slight risk (level 2 of 5) covering most of southern lower Michigan. Marginal (level 1 of 5) goes up to the Straits of Mackinac. On the backside of the low moving through the central part of the US, rain could be heavy at time with the slight risk of exceeding flash flood guidance. That’s also the case in the central Appalachians again. With all of the rain that has fallen in that area, more on top of it increases that chances that flooding will occur.
Things look like they settle a bit, although, this being the summer months, the cold fronts don’t move as fast, or they even stall out. That seems to be the case for Thursday, as the front that has been somewhat stalled in Canada moves slowly in the Great Lakes, which means rain, and back closer to the lows in the Northern Plains, the severe weather should remain tamped down a bit. However, with the stalled fronts, WPC has outlined a marginal risk for heavy rain in the Great Lakes.
South Texas looks to remain in a pattern with a chance for thunderstorms each day, but no expectation of severe weather from them. Hopefully, they’ll continue to get more rain for the Nueces River Basin and the reservoirs.
Here are the graphics from the individual offices for more details…
As promised, I’ve started to do the morning weather for the regions (S TX and N MI). I’m typically going to start like this…A surface weather map, Upper air chart (500 mb), Satellite, radar, with outlooks today, then the outlooks for the next few days. I may have a model graphic in there as well if it helps to tell the story of the forecast. Once I’m good with the written one, I’ll figure a time to do the recorded version in the future.
We have a weak high pressure over the Upper Great Lakes with a host of fronts and low pressure systems upstream. Along the Coastal Bend of Texas, the southeast prevailing flow has definitely taken over after the month of May which had one or two frontal passages, or they were close to getting that far south. However, we are going into the summer months, and the cold fronts usually don’t have the umph to get much farther south than North Texas. Moisture is being pumped into South Texas, which is a hopeful sign that the ongoing drought will begin to reverse.
The upper air is weak as well over N MI and S TX this morning. There is a 500 mb low over the region, which will produce isolated thunderstorms over the Coastal Bend today, and the 500 mb high to the west which will start pumping up the temperatures as it moves a bit more east. In northern Michigan, There is a shortwave disturbance which is expected to kick off thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, although the main action for that will be in the Plains and Midwest.
The satellite loop this morning kind of shows what I was describing with the thunderstorms moving over The Dakotas, and another feature over the Mid-Mississippi Valley. The moisture overnight in South Texas is still producing more showers, and some low clouds. Just enough moisture left over for the afternoon heat to kick off isolated showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze.
These three maps are from, left to right WPC and Everything WX app (more about that app in a bit). Starting with the left graphic (you can click on it and it will expand) WPC has the low moving through the Dakotas, and another spinning up eastern Colorado to kick off the thunderstorms with marginal to enhanced risks (center map). The enhanced risks (3 of 5 levels from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC)) are in the vicinity of the sfc (surface) lows. So as they track east, the best chance for severe weather will be there. The left map shows the WPC’s (Weather Prediction Center) risk of exceeding Flash Flood Guidance. There’s a marginal in the Plains and upper Midwest, with the thunderstorms, due to the thunderstorms producing heavy rain. However, there are some slight risks in the Mid-Atlantic States, and the lower Ohio Valley, and the marginal risks down to the Gulf Coast. The Slight (2 of 5 levels from the WPC) risks are due to the stationary fronts and the lows along them. Never underestimate a boundary that doesn’t move. Thunderstorms can form along it and keep running over the region. If that happens, heavy rain is the result. There have already been flash flood issues a day or two ago in West Virginia, so the slights could be upgraded as the situation evolves today.
I need to get going, and move my 5th wheel. So, I’ll leave you with forecast graphics from Gaylord, MI and Corpus Christi, TX.
Things have been busy again since we left South Texas. First, was the week of heading west to Mary’s (my wife)family in New Mexico. Then the trip back to the Great Lakes just in time for my oldest grandson’s high graduation. Then to New Hampshire to attend the 2nd birthday party for another grandson, then back to Michigan, helping get the graduation open house set up.
So now I think I can get things started. First, I’ll begin with posting NWS graphics with a blog post here. Once I have a handle on the work flow, I’m going to begin recording things. My livestream efforts have been stymied a bit as my Mac (2017) and my iPad (2025) don’t play well together. I can stream from my tablet, but trying to switch apps (Safari to RadarScope to Everything Weather and back again) with the video without a lot of transitioning is a little on the bulky side. So, I’m going to go back to my roots of screen capture and video editing to get my project off the ground. I can livestream radar data. I did that when the straight line winds (over 100 mph) moved through South Texas. So, I can probably do a version of some of the other YouTubers. Although my focus will be on South Texas and Northern Michigan. My original podcast was Northern Michigan Recreational Weather (about 20 years ago), was okay, but I couldn’t sustain it. Besides it was more of a way to play with the technology and show the proof of concepts back in the day.
A friend asked if I was just going to talk about the weather for just Michigan, since we are heading that way in less than a week. I responded, that I would cover South Texas and N Michigan, and anywhere there is interest weather. Well, there is interesting weather in both places. Before we get into the details, let’s look at what’s going on now…
Here’s the morning upper level map with the High over Low Rex block, beginning to move onto the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The cause of the movement will be the low over the Rocky Mountains and the Pacific Northwest. We’ll get to the reason it moves in a little bit. Over the Southern Plains, There is a weak ridge as well.
Over the surface, there is weak high pressure over the Great Lakes, with a weak surface low over the Middle Atlantic States. It’s interesting to note that the stationary front in the Dakotas, lines up with the leading edge of the jet stream that goes north through the Dakotas as well, just like they taught us in meteorology school.
Which leaves us with weak high pressure over the Southern Plains, down to Deep South Texas, which is helping the heat.
So in about 24 hours, the upper level map will look like this. The winds will at 500 mb will accelerate pushing the features along. The Rex block is now for the most part gone, now being replaced with an energetic 500 mb low and jet streak over the Plains. This pattern will kick off Severe weather in the north and keep the heat going down here in South Texas.
Here’s the surface chart from the same time as the upper level chart above it. Weak high pressure over the south with a south flow off of the Gulf. A strong surface low in the Dakotas and a warm front over Michigan.
This may be a little easier to see. By 12z/15 (7am CDT, or 8AM EDT on the 15th), you see the surface low in the Dakotas, and the warm front over Michigan. The cold front is approaching as well. This is the severe weather area (yellow) for tomorrow. The heat area is in the south where the weak front/Low pressure, and high pressure are.
So first the heat…
Here’s the heat index forecast for NWS Corpus Christi’s area (South Texas), with many sites over 105ºF and several over 110ºF. So there is a Heat Advisory out for most of the region through at least Thursday, but is likely to run into next week.
So that leads us to the Great Lakes…
As the warm front moves into the Great Lakes, the Thunderstorms will gain heat and humidity for the fuel. As I pointed out earlier with the forecast for the 500 mb pattern, all of that wind is poised to move into the Upper Great Lakes, and specifically Lake Michigan. While the highest tornado threat is in Wisconsin, there is a significant hail threat (hatched area on the severe hail outlook map) and the likelihood of severe winds (>58 MPH) is medium (33-45% of occurrence within 25 miles of a point).
In the past, I was always alerted when there was a slight risk(2 out of 5 levels with the NWS), but the enhanced risk (3 out of 5), elevates this to concern. Not to mention with Family in Michigan, the concern is higher.
I’ll reevaluate everything tomorrow morning, and decide when I can go live, and watch the thunderstorms across the state.
If you are in Texas, the will be your main concern for most of this next week. Keep hydrated!
Here it is Saturday, I had a bit of day off after doing the live stream Thursday night. That was a wild ride, as I was getting flash backs of working a straight lined wind event in 2015. If you want to see the damage reports or such, go to the NWS Corpus Christi X account or their Web page. Also I shared a lot on my X account, and my Facebook page
So for today, the idea is for a sunny to partly cloudy sky in the lower to mid 80s. The only caveat to this is the spoke of energy that is rotating down, from the north, associated with the upper level low to the east. I was looking at some site specific NBM numbers, and during the afternoon, there is a very low chance (10-20%) of a shower or a thunderstorm to move into the Coastal Bend (Just remember that a 10-20% chance of something means an 80-90% chance that nothing happens.).
The beach weather looks good with that same caveat in mind.
So let’s see what’s causing the weather…
Over South Texas this morning, high pressure continues to build into the Rio Grande Plains, working its way to the east and the Coastal Bend. We will still be getting a north wind with the high to the northeast. The surface low to the east near the Mississippi-Alabama-Florida region of the Gulf Coast, is under the upper level low.
If you see the upper level low is a bit oblong, that lobe to the west of the low center (where the X is) will rotate south. The energy in the lobe can help destabilize things in the afternoon
This is the HRRR model at 21z (4:00 PM CDT). The air is dry, so little is expected for the rain showers, but like I said earlier the chances are low, but not zero.
