While I was having dinner with family tonight, I noticed this popped up in my feeds. It looks like there is enough support for something to get going. I think I had said something yesterday, during my last video that a “home-grown” (stalled front) tropical system could spin up.

I was then pointed to this…

The blue is the machine learning weather model ensemble, the orange the ECMWF ensemble. This is Wednesday at 8 pm, and the center of low pressure systems from the models. So, I went over to TropicalTidbits.com to look at the model ensemble runs from the same time.

So there is a spread of time when we could see something form. And then where does it go? The models are all over the place. There is enough support that a depression will form in the Gulf, between Wednesday and Thursday, and move to the west before moving north. So far the models show weak systems. However, this is the time to prepare. Don’t get caught flat footed.

Something looks like it will form, but the strength and timing are unknown…