Blogging note** My posterous site is being dumb, so I’m here on my main site for the time being.

…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS NOW ISSUED A WARNING FOR A DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY.
The area in pink, or whatever shade that is, over the land is where the dangerous winter weather is expected. The blue/gray area is where there is a watch or there is a potential for dangerous winter weather.

I’ve looked through the model runs from last night, which is how HPC got this low track. This looks good. In fact, this a bit further south, which means we are more likely in the colder air so that there will be a minimum of rain mixing in with the snow. Winds don’t look like they will get to Blizzard conditions, but it will be blowing enough late Thursday that it won’t matter in some of the more open areas.

So for the 12 hours ending at 7pm Thursday (00zFri), here are the snow fall accumulations to be expected. The best snow fall areas will be in the southwest portion of the NWS Gaylord county warning area with the axis of the highest amounts roughly running from Frankfort to Drummond Island. For the 12 hour period (7a-7p), these snow fall totals exceed the warning criteria of 6 inches in 12 hours.

This is for 7pm Thursday to 7am Friday, with the axis of the best snow still along the line from Frankfort to Drummond Island. While these totals don’t exceed the warning criteria for 12 hours. when added to the previous map, the 24 hour totals exceed the 24 hour warning criteria of 8 inches. Not to mention that the winds overnight will be blowing about 20 to 30 mph.

Of course, let’s not forget our friend, lake effect. It will continue through the weekend. Some areas receive more snow on top of the storm system snow through the weekend. Too early to tell the amounts. However, Friday and Friday night could continue to be significant, as the mid level moisture will be there. Saturday and Sunday, depending on how much moisture is there will determine whether we get light to moderate amounts, or moderate to heavy. Stay tuned.

I will be Going to GRR and back on Thursday…I’ll try to get some pictures and do some on the fly blogging if I can.