I am a meteorologist and a former youth leader at church…I have a lot to say on both subjects…and then some
We hustled ourselves back from Big Ticket to attend daughter Karlie’s boyfriend’s (Josh Watton) open house. He graduated from high school earlier this month. We got a chance to see all.
I can still get come geeking in before work.
Walloon Lake and the boys
While this product is formatted for the Wildland Fire Community, it has a good writeup for what's going on. The Hazardous Weather Briefing should be out now.
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 404 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011 ...INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS WELL AS PROVIDE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED LAKE BREEZES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE BREEZY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL END ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION...USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
From the Storm prediction Center:
AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER PENINSULA OF MI/NERN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLEVALID 061902Z - 062100Z STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS WRN UPPER MI AND ADJACENT NRN WI...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL EVIDENT. WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
So we may be under a wach in NW Lower Michigan coming up with the next hour for a good portion of the night. Mary is in town, so if the office did call me to work the event, I couldn’t with no transport. So, it looks like I will be liveblogging anything that happens this evening.
Here’s the discussion from SPC this afternoon:
...UPR MS VLY/WRN GRT LKS THIS AFTN THROUGH TNGT...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER REMAINING FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO THIN ACROSS ERN MN/NRN WI INTO THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING STRONG HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EXPANDING WARM SECTOR. THE COMBINATION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS RISING TO AROUND 70F WILL LEAD TO MDT/STG INSTABILITY BY MID AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES TO AOA 3000 J/KG. WITH THE PRONOUNCED EML ACROSS THE AREA...TIMING OF SURFACE INITIATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS A CONCERN AND APPEARS SHOULD BE DELAYED TO MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL UPPER FORCING WITH THE SWLY FLOW WILL LIKELY REQUIRE FULL HEATING TO OVERCOME THE CAPPING NOW IN PLACE. ONCE STORMS FORM...40-50 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR AND STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS/SUSTAINED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THE LATTER THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST IN NRN WI...WHERE LOW LVL SRH SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN ZONE OF LOW LCLS NEAR THE WARM FRONT. BY EARLY TONIGHT...EXPECT STORMS TO MERGE INTO ONE OR MCS/S. WIND PROFILES AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR BOWING SEGMENTS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT DMGG WIND IN WI AND POSSIBLY NRN MI.
As you can read there is a chance for stuff to form in northern Minnesota and Wisconsin, where there are two tornado watches currently. Then as the storms merge, a large complex of thunderstorms with high winds could form and move into Upper and Northern Lower Michigan. The News story from NWS Gaylord has when we are expecting the worst stuff and what it will be: Some thunderstorms tonight will have the potential to be severe, mainly between 10 pm and 6 am. The main severe weather threats will be:
So far, the there are thunderstorms are forming, but no complex as of yet.
