No sooner did September start that our first cold air outbreak occur and we are getting lake effect rain showers. Droplets were a little hard to see in the picture, but the somewhat lowered visibility can be seen with the break in the clouds.

Here’s the radar from the afternoon with the rain band off the lake.

Then you see that the main rain has again gone by to the north and the south. This is also the case of Boyne Falls, where I am typing this morning. I know many will say, “But Jeff, look at that mass of rain to the west of you. Surely that will bring some relief?” Well as I have been watching it on the radar the heavier rain has been heading south and the weaker area is beginning to open up.

To see how we got into our drought, watch this video below put together by Nick Schwartz (aka Shaggy), a meteorological intern at our office.

I can still get come geeking in before work.

From the Storm prediction Center:

AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER PENINSULA OF MI/NERN  WI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 061902Z - 062100Z  STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS WRN UPPER MI AND ADJACENT NRN WI...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS  AND/OR HAIL EVIDENT.   WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

So we may be under a wach in NW Lower Michigan coming up with the next hour for a good portion of the night. Mary is in town, so if the office did call me to work the event, I couldn’t with no transport. So, it looks like I will be liveblogging anything that happens this evening.

Here’s the discussion from SPC this afternoon:

...UPR MS VLY/WRN GRT LKS THIS AFTN THROUGH TNGT...

CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER REMAINING FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO THIN ACROSS ERN MN/NRN WI INTO THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING STRONG HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EXPANDING WARM SECTOR.  THE COMBINATION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS RISING TO AROUND 70F WILL LEAD TO MDT/STG INSTABILITY BY MID AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES TO AOA 3000 J/KG.  WITH THE PRONOUNCED EML ACROSS THE AREA...TIMING OF SURFACE INITIATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS A CONCERN AND APPEARS SHOULD BE DELAYED TO MID OR LATE AFTERNOON.  LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL UPPER FORCING WITH THE SWLY FLOW WILL LIKELY REQUIRE FULL HEATING TO OVERCOME THE CAPPING NOW IN PLACE.  ONCE STORMS FORM...40-50 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR AND STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS/SUSTAINED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.  THE LATTER THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST IN NRN WI...WHERE LOW LVL SRH SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN ZONE OF LOW LCLS NEAR THE WARM FRONT.  BY EARLY TONIGHT...EXPECT STORMS TO MERGE INTO ONE OR MCS/S.  WIND PROFILES AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR BOWING SEGMENTS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT DMGG WIND IN WI AND POSSIBLY NRN MI.

As you can read there is a chance for stuff to form in northern Minnesota and Wisconsin, where there are two tornado watches currently. Then as the storms merge, a large complex of thunderstorms with high winds could form and move into Upper and Northern Lower Michigan. The News story from NWS Gaylord has when we are expecting the worst stuff and what it will be: Some thunderstorms tonight will have the potential to be severe, mainly between 10 pm and 6 am. The main severe weather threats will be:

• Damaging winds in excess of 70 mph
• Hail quarter size or larger

So far, the there are thunderstorms are forming, but no complex as of yet. 

As you saw previously, in the weather category, I was live blogging the thunderstorms as they came through the region May22nd. Well, we have a better chance a severe weather on June 1st (tomorrow). I won’t be able to live blog it, since I will be working while it is occuring. So keep up with the weather at weather.gov/gaylord.

I added the snapshot of our sounding this evening from the office. Did you see the SFC and ML LI? -8c and -6c respectively. If this air mass remains in place over the region for tomorrow, things are just going to go vertical.

 

As you saw previously, in the weather category, I was live blogging the thunderstorms as they came through the region May22nd. Well, we have a better chance a severe weather on June 1st (tomorrow). I won’t be able to live blog it, since I will be working while it is occuring. So keep up with the weather at weather.gov/gaylord.

We took a power bump and knocked the computer off the net. Just got everything back up. Just a minor wind and some rain for us.